Honestly...Let's Just Start

Hey, what’s up y’all? It’s Bruni. And I’ve got a new project/idea/whatever to share.

It’s been about three years since I’ve had my own space to talk about markets and life. And I’ve been thinking about relaunching a blog for a few months…so this weekend, I decided to get on with it and figure out the details later.

To be clear, I’m still writing The Daily Rip and creating content for Stocktwits. This project is intended to be more of a hobby and not a job, but I’ll explain my plan another time.

For now, just know if you’re interested in seeing some dope charts and hearing me riff about whatever else is on my mind, feel free to subscribe.

I plan to post at least weekly, but we’ll see how that goes. And I’ll also be sharing charts on Twitter and Stocktwits @BruniCharting, as always.

Anyway, we’ll catch up more formally soon. But for now, let’s just jump into some things that stood out during the hour or so I spent looking at charts today.

Charts

We’ll start with fixed income, commodities, and currencies because I love that ish. But don’t worry, I’ve got stock stuff too.

FICC (Fixed Income, Commodities, & Currencies)

More broadly, commodities remain in an uptrend on a structural basis, led by energy and agriculture. Keeping it simple with the CRB Index ETF $DBC establishing a new level of support after a year-long correction.

Here’s the S&P 500 vs. that ETF testing a year-long uptrend line. Unclear if this is the beginning of the ratio’s next leg lower, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

After a two-month rally in Crude Oil and energy commodities in general, it may be time for a rest below resistance at $83.50. But more broadly, it’s safe to say we’ve shifted from a downtrend to a sideways trend. And a break above this resistance level would suggest further upside, just as the world and markets declare U.S. inflation officially dead. Ironic, eh?

The big boys like Chevron have been slower to get going on an absolute basis these last two months. But if energy is going to continue to work, then these names should get going and remain in structural uptrends. Here’s Chevron turning higher relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Commercial hedgers are selling Cocoa futures at their strongest clip in a decade. That, combined with a failed breakout above resistance at 3,500 following a 66% rally, has me looking for downside in this market. Time will tell if it corrects through price or time, but safe to say its uptrend is on pause for now. This is a long-term resistance level, and I’d expect it to take time to work through.

Hedgers are also selling Feeder Cattle, with prices recently making a new marginal high above their 2014 peak. Momentum is about to cross over. Prices have yet to confirm a failed breakout, but after a sharp rally in the last eighteen months, the risk has shifted to the downside in my view.

As for currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index is mixed, so I’ll focus elsewhere for now. At a high level, if the Dollar Index stays above 101, I think the bias is higher.

The U.S. Dollar/Indian Rupee’s weekly chart is getting really tight near all-time highs. Last week was its fifth attempt to break above $83, and momentum is beginning to turn positive after nine months in the red.

And as for interest rates, Treasury Yields across the curve are approaching their year-to-date highs. Rates may have to go a bit higher and stay there a bit longer than the market was pricing in last October when the market began to rebound.

And tech stocks are definitely feeling that. And after an epic run since October, the tech sector ETF has been correcting to the downside, led by Apple, Microsoft, and several other big boys.

I’m also watching a lot of the “growthy” ETFs like IBD 50’s $FFTY that consolidated for six months during the market’s rally and just recently broke out as things got a bit frothy. They’ve given back a large chunk of their gains over the last month or so. While the longer-term trend has clearly shifted from downtrend to sideways, it may take longer than many expected to return to a solid uptrend. Watching to see where buyers step in.

Dogs of the Dow

We’ll start with Disney, which continues to consolidate above long-term support near 83 despite everyone and their mother clowning on the stock./company. I can’t talk through the fundamentals, but there are easier ways to make money than betting against Bob Iger and the brand after an already 60% decline, IMO.

For context, here’s a monthly chart of Disney showing it’s currently in its fourth-largest drawdown as a public company.

3M has been an absolute dog for five years, but if you truly believe industrials will continue to lead…then maybe even the worst of the group can catch a bid. Here’s the weekly chart showing prices stabilizing above support at 92, which has been an area of support/resistance for the last two decades.

On a relative basis, it’s still a dumpster fire. But I definitely wouldn’t be short here since it’s in its sharpest historical drawdown at ~50%.

Other Charts Of Interest

Now that we’re all on the same page that low existing home inventory is going to prop up demand and prices for new homes, Homebuilders are running straight into resistance at all-time highs. Construction ETF $ITB is already at new highs and flagging tightly, but I’m watching closely to see which way both of these charts resolve in the short-term.

The MLP ETF $AMJ just broke out of a one-year base to new highs.

Uranium ETF $URA is being led higher by its largest holding, Cameco Corp. $CCJ. It’s been a slow breakout, but after nearly two years of consolidation, it’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

That’s all for now. Back whenever with some more charts and thoughts.

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