January 14, 2026

Three Thoughts:

• Despite the tech/growth trade taking it on the chin for a few days, micro-cap stocks ($IWC) are up 9 days in a row to new all-time highs. There’s always a bull market somewhere…

• Don’t sleep on the bond market. The long end of the curve ($TLT and $ZROZ) looks messy, yes, but we’re seeing a decisive shift in momentum to the upside on a very short-term basis. If growth continues to get beaten down, bonds should catch a bid in the days/weeks ahead.

• We’ve got a potential lower high forming in platinum and palladium based on today’s after-hours action, which is at least a start for the bears. Yes, I’m still licking my wounds from shorting silver, but I do think the broader thesis was right, even if the timing and vehicle choice were most definitely wrong. I will revisit this as more evidence of a sustained top build. Lots more to see, first.

Two Charts:

#1 I’m either high, or the cannabis sector continues to carve out a bottom… I’m already long five $MSOS March 7/10 call spreads for $0.23, but I may add to them based on this recent base. Structurally, we have two nice, rounded bases building on each other and momentum shifting into a bullish range. I originally bought this pullback with a stop near $4, but prices are now stabilizing above $4.50 and turning higher in a weak tape. I may add to the trade tomorrow via straight calls because IV is so low, and I’m not sure why I chose a spread in the first place…

My biggest fear here is not buying enough time, so I’m looking out to the June 10 calls for $0.45-$0.50, as they have a delta of 0.28, and I’d look to buy 4 of them at $1.80-$2.00 total. That would bring my net delta to about 300 and my cost basis to roughly $300 (or 1.5% of my portfolio). These are either gonna be a hero or zero, so I’m comfortable with that position size and letting it ride into March when some legislative action is expected.

#2 I wish I could trade futures like the big boys…because this is a textbook short setup in Sugar that suggests a 12-handle is on the way. Prices broke below support, failed to break above it on the retrace, and are now rolling over again. Momentum remains in a bearish regime, and the 200-day continues to slope lower just overhead. This is the perfect setup, except that the $CANE ETF has no options liquidity, and I don’t short common shares. One day, I’ll have the confidence and capital size to trade sugar, oats, and all the other markets I love. For now, I will simply watch it fall.

One Trade Idea: Buying a breakout retest in large-cap healthcare/medical device giant Medtronic ($MDT). One of my biggest issues is that I’m impatient when I should be patient and patient when I should be impatient. I have been stalking this base in Medtronic for several years and missed the initial breakout in November. Now, the market is giving me a second go at it, so I’m not overthinking it. I bought 3 June $115 calls with a delta of 0.24, averaging $1.81 and totaling $543 (~2.5% of my portfolio).

Given that prices are finding buyers at support, I felt comfortable buying only five months of time for a long-term base that I expect to take 1-year or longer to return toward all-time highs. The key point is that I think $135 is in the cards over the next 12 months, and I want to position for that. This is a starter position, and I will look to double the position if broader market weakness gives us an opportunity to buy it lower. My stop loss for this will be a close below 90, at which point these calls would likely be near zero anyway. But given the stock's structural picture and overall strength in the healthcare sector, that is the lower-probability outcome imo.

Final Thoughts: It’s difficult for me to narrow down my key takeaways from the day, given that I barely had time to look at the market. Everything is relative, so I often feel that if I don’t look at everything and have the full picture, then I have no right to comment on anything (because I could’ve missed some important info or context).

Needless to say, I like to be comprehensive and know all the facts before writing a blog post or putting on a trade. But that’s not always realistic, so I’m learning when “enough is enough” by baking it into my trading plan. I’m glad that with just a few minutes of work at lunch, I had enough confidence to put on this new $MDT trade, take profits on half my $BMNR position for a double, and identify a potential opportunity to add to my position in $MSOS. Putting aside the eventual individual trade outcomes, this is progress, folks.