January 21, 2026

Three Thoughts:

• Sandisk, silver, and software. The massive outperformance of semiconductors & memory makers over software is getting to extreme levels. At some point, much like it will in Silver, the crowded trade will break. And I’ll be patiently watching for signs to get short.

• The noise isn’t over, it’s just getting started. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 need to join the small-, mid-, and foreign indexes to confirm that short- to intermediate-term momentum is intact. Japanese government bonds, Greenland, etc., etc., it’s noise, yes, but if you have a plan, this noise can create opportunity.

• My day job requires me to use the daily and intraday charts, but the more I refine my trading plan, the clearer it becomes that the basis of my decisions should be weekly charts. Much less noise, and I can focus on capturing the biggest themes instead of the latest headline. That game can work, just not for my personality.

Two Charts:

#1 The Regional Bank Breakout Looks Real: With small-caps finally breaking out, this is the perfect environment for regional and community bank stocks to play catch-up. The recent lows at 64 are the level to buy the dips against with a target near 79.

#2 Is Genomics Ready To Get Going?: With small-caps on the move, biotech and healthcare are clearly in focus. Will this speculative healthcare fund finally catch a bid? Whether you’re playing it via the ETF or its holdings, this looks like a good spot to fish.

One Trade Idea: It’s now or never for large-cap utilities. This traditionally “defensive” sector could see a bid amid continued volatility. We’ve got prices successfully retesting support and the 200-day moving average, with momentum staying in its bullish regime. If it’s gonna break out here, now’s as good a time as any.

The consolidation is about four months old, so I want to go out at least that long to give the trade time to play out. Volume and open interest in the June 45 calls will support a wide, but not too wide, spread, with liquidity to get in/out.

I’d get long three June 45 calls for $1.15 to $1.20, which will give me a net delta of about 1.14 (or the equivalent of 114 shares). I will double the position on a pullback toward 41 OR a close above 44, which confirms the trade is working. The initial target will be the former highs near 47, then 53 above that. Total position size of ~2.5% of my portfolio.

Final Thoughts: I’m going to hold off on any large, unplanned trades until I finish my trading plan this weekend. Honestly, half my portfolio right now is full of shit I shouldn’t own, including a debit call spread in $ORBS. Funily enough, TastyTrade told me it was sitting at a 661,925.6% loss this morning lol.

Needless to say, this year, I’ve done little but give back gains from last year, so I’m gonna slow down and reassess this weekend. Market’s not going anywhere.