January 22, 2026

Three Thoughts:

• At what point does beta take a break? When I scan the weekly charts of the US major indexes and global ETFs, I see many steep trends. When that will end is anyone’s guess, but you definitely need to be a lot more selective here.

• Congrats to the gold and silver bulls on hitting the $5k and $100 milestone (which I assume will be hit by the time I finish writing this). After years of frustration, the trend is finally your friend, so keep enjoying it.

• Earnings season picks up steam next week. I can’t wait to see how high-flying stocks like SanDisk, Western Digital, and others handle a little “fundamentals.” Hopefully, better than Intel did today.

Two Charts:

#1 Argentina Is Breaking Out: One ETF that is sporting a fresh breakout is Argentina, which is clearing the 95-96 level. With that said, the options in this vehicle are illiquid, so I’m gonna look for an ADR that might provide a better way to play this thesis.

#2 A Trend Change In Thailand: Those countries that haven’t joined the global equity market party are finally getting involved. That includes Thailand, which cleared resistance near 61 and its long-term downtrend line. Like Argentina, no options here, so I’ll be looking (likely unsuccessfully) for other ways to get involved here.

One Trade Idea: Yesterday, I highlighted the strength in the Ark Genomics Revolution ETF ($ARKG), and today we saw a strong breakout. The move above 33 suggests there’s upside toward 50 over the next 5 months. IV is low(ish), but I’m concerned that this breakout will pull back a bit in the event of a market pause or correction. The 200-day is below, but 20% below, so that’s no help.

Rather than buy calls outright and stop out on a pullback, I’ll buy the June 40/48 call spread for $1.20-$1.40 if I can get it, then cover the short call if/when any weakness occurs. Yes, I cap my upside, but I also reduce the amount of premium outstanding and have a gameplan if this breakout shakes us out. Buying the spread at $1.30 gives me a max upside of $6.70, or roughly a 5/1 reward-to-risk ratio. I’ll start with a five-contract position (3% of my portfolio) and cover the short calls if the ETF pulls back toward 30.

Final Thoughts: Today felt like a Friday, even though it wasn’t. The good news is that tomorrow is Friday. And I’m actually looking forward to being snowed in this weekend to dial in all this bullshit I’ve been posting. And hopefully, making some money.

BTW, today’s only trade was getting long two XLU June 45 calls for $1.09 each and will add on a pullback or move above 44 as outlined in yesterday’s blog.